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This is an incredible indicator used by none other than Steve Cohen. Cohen’s firm, S.A.C., which derives its name from his initials, is a multi-billion dollar hedge fund company. His actual trading profits have averaged approximately 70 percent per year.
Some 40 traders work under him. He is the king of tracking the volume of any given stock or market.
More amateur traders overlook volume than any other technical indicator.
We all have holes in our learning. You need to read this article and make sure you plug the holes you might have in your learning of how to effectively use the volume indicator.
Each measured unit of volume represents the meeting of minds between two individuals: a buyer and a seller. Volume measures shares or contracts that have changed hands. Volume is most commonly shown as a histogram bar below the stock price. Volume reveals clues about the psychology of bulls and bears. Rising volume confirms trends while falling volume means you should question the longevity of the existing trend.
In a downtrend, rising volume shows that panic is setting in as people run for the exists. It also shows the foolish buyers stepping in to buy betting that the market is going to turn around. Remember, in order for a sell order to execute, there has to be a buyer somewhere. Buying into a downtrend is also known as trying to catch a falling knife. It is usually a bad idea to bet that the current trend is going to change. Don’t bet against the wisdom of the crowd. Let some other fool do that. When all the sellers get out, the volume on the downside falls as the downtrend runs out of steam.
In an uptrend, rising volume shows that greed is setting in as people dog pile into the stock. It also shows sellers dumping their position betting that the market is going to turn around. Remember, in order for a buy order to execute, there has to be a seller somewhere. Selling into an uptrend makes sense only if your original profit thesis (target) has been met. When all the buyers are done chasing the stock higher, the volume on the upside falls as the uptrend runs out of steam.
Volume gives you useful clues in addition to telling you the conviction of a given trend.
If the volume spikes on a single day, it often means that a new trend is about to start, especially if it happens on a breakout from a previous trading range. If the volume spikes 300 percent or more above the average it often means that market hysteria has set in. This occurs when fearful bears decide that a downward move has broken key support and rush in to sell short or when bulls decide that an uptrend is for real on a resistance break and rush in to buy.
When price and volume diverge the stock is usually at a turning point.
When prices rise to a new high but volume falls, it shows that the uptrend attracts less interest. When prices fall to a new low and volume falls, it shows that lower prices attract little interest and an upside reversal is likely. Price is more important than volume, but good traders always analyze volume to gauge the psychology of the crowd.
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