The commodity trading universe is now based on a modern, open, well regulated network of commodity exchanges across all time zones. Primary producers and end users can trade commodities within agreed and well defined regulations and using standardised contracts and dispute mechanisms. With the result that today it is much easier to smoothly trade across the range of commodities from gold to rice and from crude oil to aluminium and sugar.
While some of the major commodities like coffee and crude oil have been traded for a number of years, we are now seeing in modern commodity markets the strong innovation theme leading to new futures contracts being traded. One area where new product development has made a notable change is in the trading of carbon emission permits. Given the growing global concern about the serious long term impact to the environment from greenhouse gases, it is likely we will see continued growth in the market for trading carbon emission permits.
For the foreseeable future it is likely we will see continual growth of markets which place a price on the environment, with further development in emissions, plastics and perhaps even water. The basis of commodity trading activity is the buying and selling of futures contracts for a whole range of commodities. While the nickel or cocoa producer will use commodity futures contracts to hedge their future sales, commercial end users will also use these contracts for hedging against sudden spikes in prices.
The main actors in the commodity markets are the speculators who trade futures contracts for profit and their activity brings liquidity, while commodity end users and producers play a smaller role. In essence a futures contract is allows a trader to sell or buy a specified quantity of a particular commodity at an agreed future date, where price is subject to the forces of supply and demand when they contract is made.
In recent years the volume of electronic trading has increased significantly as we see various exchanges merging to achieve efficiency and greater synergy. Across the globe, traders are active either on the floor of exchanges, called open outcry, or as is increasingly more likely now, via an electronically traded platform open 24 hours.
The wider availability of real time trading data and online trading software packages means that the opportunities to engage in commodity trading have reached the small retail speculator, who trades smaller amounts and now has virtually global access to the internet. While some traders look to the fundamentals of demand and supply of basic commodities in specific sectors, a growing number prefer to follow the price action of exciting trades, relying on technical analysis irrespective of the commodity in question.
With the opening up of the emerging market economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (or BRIC countries), we are likely to see a continuation of the growth in commodity markets in these nations. For example, Dalian Commodity Exchange in China has ambitious plans to develop beyond its current specialism in agricultural commodities, and move to industrial metals and more. While in the Middle East, Dubai is a growing financial centre and the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange has an interesting product range including WTI light, sweet crude oil, steel, plastics, gold and silver and the Indian Rupee.
The global credit crunch has had a profound impact on the world economy with growth being cut sharply and this has had knock-on effect on commodity prices and demand, with major companies and some economies being hit badly, yet as an asset class commodities seem unimpaired. If we look beyond the short term problems, the world economy will still need the major commodities like crude oil, iron ore, aluminium, and copper, as well as softs like sugar, cocoa and coffee, and the grains like soybean and rice. So looking ahead commodity markets will recover and the environment for commodity trading will be such that it will continue to be at the heart of world finance.
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